中国CDM项目对可持续发展的影响评价

Assessing the Impacts of CDM Projects Implemented in China on Sustainable Development

目前,中国已成为开展和实施清洁发展机制(CDM)项目最多的国家及年可核证减排量(CER)签发量最大的国家。但是这些CDM项目是否在真正意义上促进了中国的可持续发展以及在多大程度上促进了可持续发展,较少研究文献涉及。为此,本研究开发了用于评价中国CDM项目对可持续发展影响的方法学即MATA-CDM-China,该方法学以多属性效用理论为指导,构建了包括目标层、系统层、变量层和要素层等四个层次的可持续发展评价指标体系,并运用绝对效用函数对指标体系所包含的9个具体评价指标进行效用赋值,同时结合问卷调查和Delphi法获得的各指标权重值,加总各效用值最终计算出所评价项目的可持续发展影响度。此外,以邯钢燃气-蒸汽联合循环发电项目为例,运用该方法执行可持续影响评价。最后指出该方法学存在的一定局限性。

Actually, China has become the largest host country of CDM projects in the world, and also is such country which will issue the certified emission reductions （CER） most in the CDM international market. But it is not easy to assess whether the CDM projects implemented in China have in a true sense promoted the sustainable development in this country, and so far there is httle research hteratures to deal with it. Based on this consideration, we develop a multi- Multi-Attributive Assessment methodology of CDM Projects in China （MATA- CDM- China）. The methodology takes the multi-attribute utility theory （MAUT） as a guide, sets up a indicator system to assess sustainable development which consists of such four levels as objective level, system level, variable level and element level, evaluates the nine proposed indicator with specific value by means of absolute utility function, combines with various index weight of every indicator obtained from a questionnaire survey and the Delphi method, and finally calculates the degree of sustainable development of CDM projects by adding various weighted utility values. Besides, we take the CCPP project in Handan Steel Group as a case, and assess sustainable development impacts of this project with MATA- CDM- China approach. Finally, we admit there are certain limitations for this methodology.