产值单耗法在负荷预测中的应用

Application of Unit Consumption Method of Output Value in Load Forecasting

用产值单耗法预测渑池县2010年用电量,利用年均递增率法、电力弹性系数法、自然增长加大工业负荷法等3种预测方法对产值单耗法预测结果进行了校验.在适用条件、计算难度和适用期限等方面对这几种预测方法进行了分析、比较,重点对产值单耗法的适用范围、优缺点进行了分析评价,提出了一些有益结论,为县级供电企业短中期负荷预测提供了参考.

The concept,the computing method,the characteristics and the effective factors of unit consumption method of output value were introduced.For forecasting the quantity of power consumption of Mianchi county in 2010,unit consumption method of output value was used,and other methods were also used to test the forecasting result of unit consumption method of output value,such as annual average increase rate method,electric power elastic coefficient method,and natural increase method combining with big industry load.These methods were compared with each other and analyzed in the process of forecasting load from suitable conditions,difficulties of calculation,and suitable application time,the suitable scope and characteristics of unit consumption method of output value was evaluated,and some results were got.these provide a reference for short-medium load forecasting of power supply enterprises of counties.