生物液体燃料发展对能源地缘政治格局的影响

THE IMPACT OF BIO-FUEL'S DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATTERNS OF WORLD ENERGY GEO-POLITICS

世界生物液体燃料的生产格局是美国、巴西和欧盟三足鼎立的局面。美国主要是玉米为原料的燃料乙醇,而巴西是以甘蔗为原料,欧盟则是以油菜籽为主的生物柴油。生物液体燃料目前的规模还不是很大,其对传统能源地缘政治格局的影响还十分有限。但如果未来纤维素乙醇技术上有重大突破,随着产量的大幅度增长,其影响会越来越大。未来"生物燃料欧佩克"和欧佩克之间的矛盾和斗争将越来越激烈,彼此之间力量的消涨对未来世界能源地缘政治格局的影响广泛而深远。生物燃料的发展,使发展中国家和石油输出国面临严峻挑战,发达国家利用技术和粮食的双重优势,一方面可以减少对石油输出国的依赖,另一方面又可以抬高国际市场的粮食价格,为提高农产品出口价格创造条件。同时发达国家利用自己在生物燃料领域的技术优势,将其纳入温室气体减排和全球气候变化谈判的框架中,进一步对发展中国家施压。

The world bio-fuels productions are mainly located in U.S.A,Brazil and EU.About 90 percent of production is concentrated in these countries.But the raw materials of ethanol are totally deferent.The U.S.A is corn-based ethanol,Brazil is sugarcane-based ethanol and EU is biodiesel based on rapeseed.The bio-fuels now is in the early stage of development,and its impacts on traditional energy geo-politics are very limited.If the low-cost raw materials are available in the near future,cellulosic ethanol will replace the first-generation bio-fuels,and with the increase of bio-fuels production,the impacts of bio-fuels on energy geo-politics will be deeper and wider.The competitiveness between ＂Bio-fuels OPEC＂and OPEC will be more series.The bio-fuels development results from OPEC and the non-OPEC developing countries face great challenges.The developed countries utilize their advantages both in bio-fuels technologies and in the grain market,on one hand they could reduce the oil dependence on OPEC,on the other hand they could rise grain price,increase the income of their grain export.The bio-fuels development also has an important utilization is decrease the emission of CO2.The negotiations about post-Kyoto climate framework will start soon.The developed countries most probably use their advantages in the field of bio-fuels and make press on developing countries.