近千年全球温度变化特征及成因的模拟分析

Modeling Study on the Characteristics and Cause of Global Temperature Change During the Last Millennium

利用全球海气耦合模式(ECHO-G)的1000个模式年的长积分气候模拟试验结果,对近千年的温度变化特征及其可能的成因进行了研究,结果表明:近千年全球温度变化明显呈现"暖期—调整期—冷期—短调整期—暖期"的两峰一谷的"V"字型变化格局.其中前一个暖期对应于中世纪暖期,冷期对应于小冰期,后一个暖期对应于20世纪暖期.通过对太阳辐射常数、火山活动指数、CO2和CH4浓度序列的拟合分析发现,太阳辐射和火山活动是控制全球温度变化的主控因子,而在最近百年尺度上,温室气体(CO2和CH4)浓度含量的变化对温度变化起着更为重要的作用.

The Characteristics and cause of global temperature change during the last millennium were discussed based on the results of a 1000-year climatic simulation experiment from a global atmospheric-ocean coupled climate model ECHO-G. The results are as follows ： the ＂V＂ shaped change pattern of two apexes and one vale,which is ＂warm period-adjustive period-cold period-short adjustive period-warm period ＂, is shown in 1000-year temperature change. After the fitting analysis of the changes of solar radiation constant, volcanic activity index, CO2 and CH4 concentrations,it is found that the changes of solar radiation, volcanism are controlling factors for the warming climate of the MWP, while the changes of greenhouse gas （ CO2 and CH4 ） concentrations play a vital role in climate change in recent hundred years.