金融风暴后的预算赤字与政策及其对中国的启示

The Lesson to China from the Budget Deficits and Policies after Finance Crisis

论文将预算赤字成因归纳为三类,经济周期、国家安全与收支结构性因素。过去三、四十年来大多数OECD国家陷入长期预算赤字的主因在于出现收支结构性问题。为降低预算赤字与债务的累积,1980年代OECD国家曾一致性地实行宏观预算制度,限制岁出增长与控制预算赤字,如实施基线预算、删减支出、限制赤字与债务占GDP的比例,甚至平衡预算目标等。控制预算增长与赤字政策的严格实施取得了成效;再加上1990年代网络经济带动经济状况持续活络,各国预算赤字逐年减少,终于出现预算剩余,未偿还债务余额亦下滑。论文认为金融风暴过后,经济开始复苏,各国政府应重新注重财政长期稳健原则,再度实行宏观预算制度之相关财政规范与政策。

As a response to the global finance crises and economic recession in 2008,most countries reduced interest rates,and adopted expansionary fiscal policies,including tax reduction and refund,financing,subsides,and increasing government expenditures. As a result,budget deficits and public debts accumulated quickly. The global economy has been recovering since the late 2009,especially showing the signs from the stock and housing markets and international trades. However,from the beginning of 2010,the debt crises of Grace and the deficit problems of European countries lead a depreciation of the Euro and weak performances of the global stock market. So its time to pay much attention the budget deficit and debt problems. The paper categorizes the causes of budget deficit into three:economic business cycle,national safety,and revenue-expenditure gap. During the past forties,the most countries of OECD have revenue-expenditure gap structural problems in government budgets. To reduce deficit and debt,OECD countries adopted Macro-budgeting policies,including baseline budgeting,expenditure reduction,fiscal norms (such as deficit and debt to GDP ratio,budget balance etc.). The policies to control the growth of government expenditures,in addition to the internet economy in 1990s succeed in reducing the budget deficits and debts of the OECD countries. The paper argues governments should adopt Macro-budgeting again to set up a series of fiscal norms to establish sound government finance.