中国建立稻谷期货市场话语权研究——基于中、美、泰三国市场的实证分析

Study on Words Power of Rice Futures Market in China——An Empirical Analysis in Markets of China,America and Thailand

作为全球最大的粮食生产国和消费国,早籼稻期货的推出引发了社会对我国能否成为世界粮食定价中心、能否拥有世界粮价话语权的关注。基于向量自回归(VAR)模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等计量方法,对我国郑州期货市场(CZCE)、美国芝加哥商品交易所(CBOT)及泰国农产品期货交易所(AFET)3个最主要的稻谷期货市场之间的联动性及影响机制进行了研究,得出三者之间确实存在协整关系,且郑州期货价格引导芝加哥期货价格。此外,世界稻谷期货市场总方差中来自于CZCE的方差为39.43%,来自于CBOT的方差为26.58%,来自于AFET的方差为33.99%。鉴于现有的市场影响力和地位,我国要努力通过完善国内市场和健全期货市场等方式获得国际稻谷市场的定价权和话语权。

As the world＇s largest grain producer and consumer country,the introduction of early indica rice future stock aroused the attention from the whole society on China＇s ability to become the world＇s food pricing center and have the words power to decide the world＇s grain price.Based on VAR model,variance decomposition,impulse response functions and other measurement methods,this paper studied the international linkage and influencing mechanism among the three most important rice futures markets in Zhengzhou futures market（CZCE） of China,Chicago Mercantile Exchange（CBOT） and the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand（AFET）.The results showed that the three markets are closely related and the price in CBOT followed that in CZCE.In addition,the total variance of the world＇s rice futures market from CZCE is 39.43%,while it is 26.58% from CBOT and it is 33.99% from AFET.Because of the existing market power and position,China should strive to gain the right to price and get the words power in international rice market through perfecting domestic market and futures markets.