影响中国农村劳动力省际迁移动因的实证分析——基于新劳动力迁移理论

An Empirical Analysis on Determinants of Rural Labor Interprovincial Migration in China——Based on the New Economic Theory of Labor Migration

利用2005年中国1%人口抽样调查数据中的农村劳动力省际迁移数据,结合新劳动力迁移经济理论,对logit模型进行了扩展,加入了农村信贷市场、农业生产性固定资产、农业受灾比例和老年抚养比,考察它们对省际迁移的影响。结果显示:农村信贷市场越不完善、农业生产性固定资产原值越高、农业受灾比例越大和老年人抚养比越高的地区,农村劳动力外迁的比例也就越大。因此,在中国农村金融和保险市场不完善的前提下,农村劳动力迁移是农民分散农业风险和稳定家庭收入的一种有效方式。

Earlier studies have established that migration patterns were responsive to spatial differences in labor markets in China.However,agricultural determinants of interprovincial migration flows have not been considered.We estimate a modified logit model of rural labor interprovincial migration in China that includes as explanatory variables： rural credit market,agricultural productive assets,agricultural harm and aged-dependency etc,combined with the new economic theory of labor migration.The analytical results are based on province-level data obtained from 1% population sample survey of 2005.We find strong evidence that migration rates rise with the imperfect extent of rural credit market,the value of agricultural productive assets,the extent of agricultural harm and the ratio of aged-dependency.On the premise of the imperfect financial and insurance market,rural labor migration is an effective way of spreading risks and increasing family＇s incomes.Perfecting financial and insurance market to decrease the risk of agricultural income can stem the rural-to-urban migration flow.