城镇居民人均养老保障需求预测——以福建省为例

A Prediction of Urban Residents' Per Capita Demand for Old-Age Security——A Case Study of Fujian

为合理制定政府养老支出财政预算,通过对养老保障需求的概念分解,构建起人均养老保险需求预测模型;根据1998—2008年福建省城镇居民的消费支出和转移性支出数据,测算了1998—2008年福建省城镇居民的人均养老保障需求,并对2009—2020年的福建省城镇居民的人均养老保障需求进行预测。

In order to help the government decide on a reasonable budget for old-age security,the paper first studied in detail the concept of old-age security demand and constructed a predicting modal of per capita demand for old-age security. Then based on data of Fujian urban residents＇consumer spending and transfer expenditure from 1998 to 2008,it calculated their average demand for old-age security in these two decades. Finally it predicted Fujian urban residents＇per capita demand for old-age security from 2009 to 2020.