独生子女夫妇生育预测问题讨论

Discussion on Childbearing Forecast of Only-Child Couples

就夫妇为独生子女的情况,对以下3个方面问题进行了讨论:1)年龄孩次递进生育率模型及用Exel计算的公式;2)三种获得独生子女年龄分布的方法及推算单、双独家庭妇女的年龄分布概率;3)一些地区符合政策可生育2孩妇女的2孩递进生育率水平。通过讨论帮助基层人口和计划生育系统干部把握独生子女夫妇生育问题对人口的影响。

Centering around only-child couples,the following three questions are discussed： 1） age Parity Progression Fertility model and related Excel formulas;2） three methods of access to the only-child age distribution and then to the probability of women＇s age distribution of single/both only-child couples;3） a possible 2-child progressive fertility level in some areas of childbearing women who can have the 2nd child according to the policy.The paper hence hopes to help cadres of population and family planning sections at grassroots to be aware of the impact of the mentioned couple＇s childbearing on the whole nation＇s population.