人口、经济增长对环境影响的库兹涅茨曲线分析——以昆山市为例

Impact of Population and Economic Growth on Environment through Kuznets Curve——Based on Kunshan City

采用昆山市1991-2007年人口、经济相关数据,对昆山市人口、经济发展现状和环境质量进行了库兹涅茨曲线拟合分析,发现昆山市目前工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量分别与经济增长呈倒N型和正N型曲线关系,工业固体废物排放方面则不存在明显曲线,人口增长速度较快但对环境影响不明显。这说明昆山市目前已进入人口、经济增长与环境质量关系转折的关键点,转折的实现需要积极的环境政策响应。

Using the demographic and economic data of Kunshan City from 1991 to 2007,the study modeled through Kuznets curve the city＇s population and economic development and its environmental quality,finding that the city＇s current industrial emissions of wastewater showed the inverted N-shaped curve with the city＇s economic growth and exhaust gas showed the N-shaped curve with it,while solid wastes didn＇t generate obvious up and down concave shaped curves;population growth was relatively faster but didn＇t have significant effect on the environment.The findings indicate that the city is now in a turning period in which a transition of population,economic growth and environmental quality is to take place,which requires a positive policy for the environment.