期刊文献+

以汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见 被引量:4

Green Technology Foresight on the Development of Automobile Industry
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摘要 本文将环境因素纳入技术预见范畴,将其与可持续发展理论相结合,提出绿色技术预见的概念,进行系统的理论分析和案例验证,探索以新能源汽车产业发展为对象的绿色技术预见方法体系。应用情景分析法进行技术需求分析,得出55项待选技术,归为代用燃料汽车技术、电动汽车技术、混合动力汽车技术、燃料电池汽车技术、共性技术、清洁柴油汽车技术等六大类。通过两轮大规模德尔菲调查,最终遴选出CVVT发动机技术、VVT-i发动机技术等12项关键技术,最后给出我国新能源汽车产业的发展路径。 This paper gave out the concept of green technology foresight and carried out the green technology foresight on automobile industry,in order to achieve a strategic outlook for the future development trends of new-energy automobile in China.Based on Scenario technique,it advanced six categories of automobile technology(i.e.alternative fuel-,electric auto-,hybrid power-,fuel cell-,clean diesel-and generic technology) covering 55 technologies and reduced them to 12 key ones via statistical analysis of Delphi survey,which includes CVVT engine technology,etc..Based on this,it figured out the development path of new-energy automobile industry in China.
出处 《预测》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第4期1-8,共8页 Forecasting
基金 上海市科学技术委员会上海研发公共服务平台建设专项资助项目(06DZ22924)
关键词 绿色技术预见 可持续发展 新能源汽车产业 情景分析法 德尔菲 green technology foresight sustainability new-energy automobile industry scenario delphi
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参考文献13

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共引文献54

同被引文献31

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二级引证文献17

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