产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响研究——基于随机模型方法的实证分析

Effect of Product Harm Crisis on Brand Performance——A Empirical Study Based on Stochastic Models Method

准确评估产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响是企业进行产品伤害危机管理的前提。本文在对产品伤害危机及品牌绩效测量等相关理论文献回顾的基础上,通过建立NBD-DM随机模型,提供了一种评估产品伤害危机对企业品牌绩效影响的模型方法,并利用一组奶粉品类销售的固定样本组数据以雀巢奶粉碘超标事件为分析对象对该模型方法进行了实证分析。结果表明NBD-DM随机模型是动态测量品牌绩效的有效模型方法,并且证实产品伤害危机对品牌绩效指标的影响短期主要在于对品牌购买频率及其品牌品类需求份额的显著负向影响,而从长期来看,危机将改变NBD-DM模型所描述的稳定市场结构,从而对品牌绩效产生全面负向影响。最后讨论了结论对产品伤害危机管理的实践意义。

It is necessary to evaluate the effect of product-harm crisis on brand performance for firm crisis management.Based on theories review of product-harm crisis and brand performance measures,we present a NBD-DM stochastic model to estimate the effect of product-harm crisis on brand performance and validate the model by the panel data of milk sale.Results show that modeling methods used in this article is an effective tool to analyze brand performance.In addition,it has been found that product-harm crisis has negative effect on purchase frequency and share of category requirements in the short term.However,from long term view,the crisis has negative effect on others brand performance by changing the stable market structure.The marketing implications to product-harm crisis management are discussed.