四川产业结构与就业结构变动关系的实证研究

Industrial Structure and Employment Structure Changes in the Relationship Between Empirical Research of Sichuan Province

四川省是农业人口大省,而在西部十二省中四川的经济发展水平处于前列。因此,对四川省产业结构和就业结构的研究对西部乃至全国经济的发展有着重要的意义。为了使四川省产业结构和就业结构之间的关系更加明确,本文运用Granger因果关系检验得出,四川省产业结构变动是引起就业结构变动的原因。在此基础上利用Johansen协整关系检验、线性回归等方法测算出产业结构对就业结构影响程度、做出各产业对就业贡献率的折线图并分析了产业结构与就业结构的偏离度。最后得出结论:第一产业产值的增长不仅无法拉动就业而且对业已存在的剩余劳动力还具有一定的挤出效应,第三产业具有较大的发展空间和吸纳就业的能力,第二产业次之。

There is a lot of the agricultural population in Sichuan Province,the level of economic development is very good in the western of China.Therefore,the industrial structure and employment structure in Sichuan Province of the study on the western and even national economic development has an important significance.This paper use Granger causality test to showed that the industrial structure caused by changed in the structure of employment.On this basis I used Johansen cointegration test,linear regression methods to measure the industrial structure the extent of the impact on the structure of employment,make contributions to the industry＇s employment rate and the line chart analysis of industrial structure and employment structure of the deviation.Finally come to the conclusion： the growth of primary industry has a crowding-out effect,and the third industry with more room for development and the ability to absorb employment,followed by the secondary industry.