基于协整分析和局部多项式回归的兵团经济增长实证分析

Investment,Consumption and Xinjiang Construction Group's Economic Growth:Based on Cointegration and Local Polynomial Regression

采用协整分析,实证分析了兵团的投资、消费与经济增长之间的关系,研究发现三者之间存在长期稳定的关系,但是由格兰杰因果检验发现投资和消费均不是兵团GDP增长的因。为进一步明确投资和消费对兵团经济的影响,采用岭回归的思想改进局部多项式方法,用当期投资,前一期投资和当期消费拟合兵团GDP,得到GDP对前述变量的偏导数值,进而利用这些偏导数来评价投资、消费对经济增长的影响。研究发现投资、消费对经济增长的作用呈现明显的非线性关系,有很强的时期性。

Firstly,this paper applies cointegration to analyze the relationship between Xinjiang Construction Group（XJCG）＇s investment,consumption and economic growth.Through the research,we found that there is long-term equilibrium among them.But the results of Granger Causality tests show that investment and consumption don＇t have Granger Causality relationship with economic growth.In order to know more about the relationship among them,this paper uses the ridge method to improve local polynomial method,then use this method to fit the GDP by investment,last year investment and consumption,and get the partial derivatives.Then use the partial derivatives to appraise the affection of investment and consumption to economic growth.We found that investment and consumption have nonlinear and period influence on XJCG＇s economic growth.