物价、利率与收入对居民消费需求影响研究——基于时变参数状态空间模型

Price,Interest rate and Income to Chinese Resident Consumer Demand Effect Research Based on Time-Varying Parameter State Space Model

运用时变参数状态空间模型对我国改革开放三十年来物价、利率与收入对农村和城镇居民消费需求影响的动态特征进行了研究。发现物价、收入对农村和城镇居民的消费需求弹性不同,农村消费需求受收入影响较大,而城市居民消费需求受物价影响较大;利率对农村和城镇居民消费需求影响不显著,利率机制目前还不是调解中国消费需求的理想工具。在此基础上给出了相应的政策建议。

This article applied the time-varying parameter state space model discuss to the price,the interest rate and the income has conducted the research to our country countryside and the city people consumer demand effect dynamic characteristic.Discovered that the price,the income are different to the countryside and city people＇s consumer demand elasticity,the countryside consumer demand is received the influence to be big,but the city people consumer demand is been big the price influence; The interest rate is not remarkable to the countryside and the city people consumer behavior influence, the interest rate mechanism at present mediates the ideal tool which China expends,On this basis,given the appropriate policy recommendations.