基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市轨道概率潮流分析

Probabilistic Load Flow for Urban Rail Traction Power Supply Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

为探讨城市轨道牵引供电网络中潮流分布的不确定性,基于城市轨道交、直流统一的牵引供电算法,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市轨道牵引供电系统概率潮流计算方法.该方法通过列车运行的时间-位置曲线构建列车位置的概率分布;根据行车组织建立发车间隔的概率分布;通过蒙特卡洛仿真,随机抽样确定列车在线路上的位置和功率分布;采用交、直流统一的潮流计算,获得城市轨道牵引供电系统节点电压和功率的概率分布.实例仿真表明,采用该方法,可准确把握牵引网网压、牵引变电所负荷等的概率统计特征.

In order to research the uncertainty of urban rail traction load flow distribution,a Monte Carlo simulation method for the calculation of probabilistic load flow（PLF） was presented based on the unified AC/DC power flow algorithm.This method constitutes the probability distribution of train position from the position-time graph of train running.The probability distribution of departing time interval is obtained in light of the organization of train operation.With the Monte Carlo simulation,the positions and corresponding powers of trains can be achieved by random sampling.By unified calculation of AC/DC power flow,the probability distribution functions of node voltage and power can be attained.The examples shows that probabilistic statistical characteristics of traction network voltage and traction load of substation can be achieved with this method.