马莲河流域洪涝灾害及洪水频率分析研究

Study on Flood Disasters and Flood Frequency in Malian River Basin

通过搜集、整理和分析历史文献资料,对1368～2007年640年间马莲河流域洪涝灾害进行了研究。结果表明在640年间马莲河流域共发生洪涝灾害114次,平均5.61年发生1次,说明马莲河流域为洪涝灾害多发的区域,而且随着人类活动的加强和全球气候的暖干化,洪涝灾害发生的频率加快;同时结合历史调查和实测资料分析洪水频率表明,马莲河流域实测资料序列短,即使结合历史调查洪水资料,也难以精确获得百年一遇以外的洪峰流量,直接影响到大型水利水电工程的洪水设计精度,说明开展马莲河流域的古洪水水文学研究具有十分重要的意义。

The flood disasters in the Malian River basin from 1368 to 2007 were studied through collecting, sorting and analyzing historical documents. The results showed that total 114 flood disasters occurred in the Malian River basin within 640 years, and there was one flood disaster per 5.61 years in average, which illustrated that the Malian River basin was flood - prone area, and the frequency of flood disasters was being accelerated along with the strengthening of human activities and warming and drying of global climate. At the same time, the analysis of flood frequency showed that the gauged flood data was of shortage, even if combining the historical flood information, it was also difficult to obtain the accurate peak flow beyond the retum period of hundred years, which would directly impact on the flood design accuracy of large - scale water conservancy and hydropower project, so it was very significant to carry out the study on palaeoflood in the Malian River basin.