摘要
运用旅游本底趋势线(TBL)和混合自回归滑动平均模型(MARMA)分别估算出入境旅游减少的人数,然后通过加权平均法得到最终估计结果.结果表明,汶川地震对四川省入境旅游的影响至今仍未恢复到震前水平,地震使四川省入境旅游人数减少了269.85万人次.
The reducing number of tourists going to and coming from Sichuan has been estimated through the TBL（Tourism-Background-Line） and the MARMA（Mixture Autoregressive Moving Average Model）.The final estimating result has been achieved by Weighted Average Method.The results revealed that the tourists of Sichuan Province has not reached the level before the earthquake yet,and the number of inbound tourists decrease by 2698.5 thousand.
出处
《曲靖师范学院学报》
2010年第3期97-101,共5页
Journal of Qujing Normal University
关键词
汶川地震
入境旅游
旅游本底趋势线
MARMA模型
加权平均
Wenchuan earthquake
inbound tourists
Tourism-Background-Line
Mixture Autoregressive Moving Average Model
Weighted Average Method
