新疆棉花生产价格对农民家庭经营纯收入的影响研究

Empirical Study on the Effect of the Cotton Price Change on the Farmers' Household Operation Income in Xinjiang

农民增收一直是中央农村经济工作重点关注的问题。以棉花生产价格对新疆农民家庭经营纯收入的影响为研究重点,建立计量经济模型,利用1988-2007年的数据进行了测算。结果显示:棉花生产价格对新疆农民家庭经营纯收入具有重要影响,而且家庭经营纯收入逐年互相影响,增加农民收入将是一个长期的持续的过程,所以应当作为一个长期目标。另外还测算了棉花生产价格对家庭经营纯收入的直接影响和间接影响,进行了分析比较并给出了政策建议。图1,表2,参12。

Increasing farmers＇ income has been one of the key priority issues of the central government. This paper establishes an econometric model to analyze the effect of the cotton price on farmers＇ household operation income in Xinjiang. On the basis of data from 1988 to 2007, the paper makes an empirical study to calculate the effect. The results show that the price of cotton has significant effect on farmers＇ household operation income. In addition, the farmers＇ household income has mutual effects over years, so it should be a long-time goal to improve farmers＇ household income. Besides, the paper calculates the direct and indirect effect of the cotton price on farmers＇ household operation income, and presents some policy proposals.