基于循环修正的城市房地产泡沫程度评价研究

Estimate Model of Bubble's Degree of Urban Real Estate Based on Revise Circularly

房价高涨引发了学者们对我国城市房地产泡沫的争议。本文将理论研究与实证分析相结合,对我国房地产市场的泡沫程度进行研究,利用客观评价方法——主成分分析法,和主观评价方法——模糊层次分析法,针对我国房地产市场泡沫程度分别进行指标选择和评价,最后利用循环修正的思想对中国城市房地产泡沫评价体系进行修正、校对。通过对35个城市的房地产市场泡沫程度的评价,最后得出结论:35个城市房地产市场存在不同程度的泡沫,沿海城市的泡沫程度高于内陆城市。

Upswing of the real estate price brings disputed of bubbles of real estate in China＇s cities by scholars.The paper combines theory research and empirical analysis,researches the bubble＇s degree of real estate of cities in China,taking advantage of a objective method-FAHP and a subjective method-PCA,selecting and estimating the index target bubbles of real estate in China＇s cities,through a method of revise circularly modify and proof the estimate system of bubbles of real estate in China＇s cities.After estimate the bubble＇s degree of real estate of 35 cities in China,the conclusion is：to a certain degree there are bubbles in these 35 cities,and the bubbles＇ degree of coastal cities are higher than inland cities.