基于天气因素的我国登革热流行风险地图

Risk Map for Dengue Fever Outbreaks Based on Meteorological Factors

全球变暖的大趋势和不断增加的输入病例被认为是登革热在中国重新出现而且流行范围不断扩大的原因。通过对一些登革热流行地区的天气因素进行分析,了解天气因素与登革热之间的关系。广州、福州和宁波的天气因素被用于交叉相关分析,根据天气和登革热疫情的时间关系,构建了我国登革热流行的气象风险地图。结果显示天气因素对登革热疫情都存在8～10周的延迟影响。我国登革热的高风险地区主要在华南和华东的沿海地区。华南地区经常暴发登革热,华东沿海地区的南部近年来也多次暴发登革热。虽然有些地区还没有登革热流行的记录,但应该加强对输入性病例的监测和管理,防止出现本地流行。

The trend of global warming and the increase in imported cases were supposed to cause the reemerging and expanding of dengue fever（DF） in China.In this paper,the correlation coefficients between meteorological factors and the DF outbreaks in China were analyzed to detect the relationship between weather/climate factors and the outbreak of DF.DF outbreaks in Guangzhou,Fuzhou and Ningbo were selected to investigate the lag effect of weather factors on the outbreaks with the cross correlation analysis.Based on the temporal relationship of weather and DF outbreak,a risk map of DF outbreaks for China with suitable weather factors was drawn.Some weather variables are significantly correlated with the DF outbreaks,at a lagged time period of 8-10 weeks.The risk map demonstrates the risk areas with the climate suitable for the outbreak of DF in China,and coast areas of south and southeast China are included in the risk area.