人口生产偏好转变对农户收入增长的影响——基于西北地区农户经验数据的分析

Effects of Population Preferences Reversal on Income Growth of Rural Households——Based on the Analysis of Empirical Data of Farmers in Northwest China

工业化、市场化的冲击,导致农民家庭的人口生产偏好由高生育率和低人力资本积累率逐渐转向低生育率和高人力资本积累率;劳动力市场开放时,人口生产偏好转变引致的劳动力素质提升,促使农业劳动力转向收益率较高的非农产业而实现职业转换,农户生产组织内的劳动分工由此呈现多元化格局;分工的拓展对农户收入具有显见的增长效应,在提高农业劳动生产率的同时增加了新的收入来源。工业化、市场化以及内生于这一过程的人口生产偏好转变,是决定农民跳出"马尔萨斯陷阱"的基本力量。

The impact of Industrialization and marketization leads to the changes that population production preference of peasant household transfers from high fertility and low human capital accumulation rate gradually to low birth rate and high human capital accumulation rate.With the liberalization of labor markets,the raise of labor quality caused by demographic changes contributes to the labor force shift from agricultural sector to non-agricultural industries,higher rate of return than agricultural sector;division of labor within the organization thus renders a diversified pattern.The expansion of labor division has obvious positive effects on the household income growth and opens up a new source of revenue streams with increasing agricultural labor productivity.Industrialization,marketization as well as the population preference change endogenous in the process of industrialization and marketization,is the basic force helping the farmers to escape from the＂Malthusian trap.＂