开放经济下中国货币政策的独立性检验

A Test of the Independence of Chinese Monetary Policy in Open Economy

采用"G-R模型"检验开放经济下我国央行对基础货币供给的控制能力,结果表明:在其他变量不变的条件下,一单位外汇占款占货币供应量M2的比重的增长能够使基础货币增长率减少0.29个单位;货币乘数增长率增加一单位会引起基础货币增长率减少1.07个单位;利率增长率增加一单位要求基础货币增长率减少0.02个单位;而美国消费者价格指数增长率增长一个单位则将引起我国基础货币增长率增长0.8个单位;但汇率和经济增长的变化对基础货币不构成影响。由于我国央行对外汇占款、货币乘数以及美国物价都不具有控制能力,因此,检验结果意味着央行货币政策的独立性受到极大的挑战。

In this paper,we test the ability of the central bank on controlling the base currency supply by using the ＂G-R＂ model under the open economy.The results show：when other variables are constant,a unit growth of the funds outstanding for foreign exchange in M2 can make the base currency growth rate reduced by 0.29 units;a unit of the money multiplier growth rate increase will cause the base currency growth rate decreased by 1.07 units;the growth rate of interest rate increasing a unit requests the growth rate of base currency decreased by 0.02 units;and the consumer price index of U.S.increasing one unit will lead the growth rate of base currency in China rise 0.8 units;However,the exchange rates and economic growth will not affect the Chinese base currency.Since Chinese central bank can not control funds outstanding for foreign exchange,money multiplier,and the U.S.prices,the results of the test mean that the independence of monetary policy of China has been encountered a great challenge.