山东省“能源—环境—经济”有序度的影响因素分析

On the Coordination Degree of the Energy-environment-economy Compound System of Shandong

从协同学角度,运用复合系统原理,构建了山东省"能源—经济—环境"复合系统的协调度模型。通过实证分析,得出各子系统的发展趋势以及山东省整体复合系统的变化趋势。结果表明,山东省整体复合系统的协调度逐年下降,且能源和环境子系统的发展不稳定直接导致了总协调度的持续下降,并且趋势明显。山东省"能源—经济—环境"三者发展不协调,能源和环境问题将会成为制约山东省经济进一步发展的关键因素。最后为建立资源节约型国民经济体系和资源节约型社会,提出了相应的优化建议和发展对策。

From the angle of Synergetie and on the base of thesis of Compound System, this paper develops a 3E - system coordination model. The empirical analysis reveals the variation trend of every subsystem, as well as the whole system of Shandong. It shows that the instability of both energy and environment subsystems directly lead to the decline of the degree of overall coordination. The decline must be the bottleneck of Shandong＇ s development. Then this paper points out some suggestions for Shandong＇ s overall coordination, in order to build a harmonious society.