地方财政支出结构与经济增长实证研究

Empirical study on the effects of the structure of local fiscal expenditures on economic growth

为了探讨地方财政支出结构对经济增长的影响,从可预见性经济增长和潜在经济增长2个维度来研究地方财政支出结构与地区经济增长的关系.利用1995~2006年的各省GDP、财政支出占GDP比重等经济指标样本期内的平均数,分别采用人均地区GDP增长率和人均地区GDP加速度作为自变量进行测量.运用计量经济学模型,实证分析了财政支出占GDP比重及各种不同类别的支出项目占财政支出比重对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明,财政支出及其构成对经济增长的影响不仅在量上存在差异,而且在质上也存在某些差异.同时本文认为,实证分析中政府财政支出比重扩大对经济增长产生的不利影响可以通过资源合理分配而被遏制.

In order to investigate the effects of the structure of local fiscal expenditures on economic growth,the authors studied the structure of local fiscal expenditures and their relationship to regional economic growth,highlighting two dimensions-the predictability of economic growth versus the potential for economic growth.The paper used provincial GDP data for the 1995-2006 periods,determining the ratio of fiscal expenditure to GDP,the growth rate of regional GDP per capita,and any acceleration of regional GDP per capita.Using econometric models,the paper empirically analyzed the ratio of fiscal expenditures to GDP and the ratio of every kind of project＇s expenditures to its impact on economic growth.From the results,it turned out that fiscal expenditures,including components,influenced economic growth not only in quantity,but also in quality.At the same time,it was found possible for negative effects from the growth of the ratio of fiscal expenditures to be contained through a rational allocation of resources.