山东省1961～2008年极端气温和降水事件变化

Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation in Shandong Province during 1961-2008

利用山东78个气象台站1961～2008年逐日平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温及降水量资料,分析极端气温和降水事件变化。结果表明,尽管平均全省极端低温日减少0.23 d/a,但是鲁中山区和半岛内陆地区每年春季气温稳定通过10℃后,仍可出现1～2 d晚霜冻现象,小麦、果树等每年仍面临冻害风险。尽管全省平均极端高温日增加0.19 d/a,但因夏季日最高气温的平均值、标准差减小,2000年以来山东西部地区多年平均日最高气温大于35℃的日数,与常年相比减少1～3 d。近50年极端降水变化趋势不显著,小雨日数有明显减少趋势,平均减少0.17 d/a,大暴雨的降水频数有增加趋势。

Based on the daily mean temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation data at 78 stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2008,the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in weather and climate extremes were studied.The results showed that the numbers of the extreme intense precipitation events increased,but the increasing tendency was not distinct.In the recent 18 years,days of precipitation below 10.0 mm obviously decreased,but the days of precipitation over 100 mm significantly increased.The extreme hot days increased,while the extreme cold days decreased,and their tendencies were remarkable.Because of decreasing of maximum temperature variability and average the days of maximum temperature ≥35 ℃ decreased in west Shandong after 2000,the annual average spring frost-days is decrease 1 day than it in former 30 years,that is 1-2 days in mountain area of center shandong and center peninsula,less 1 day in other areas respectively.Winter wheat and fruit trees face on spring frost injury risk.