摘要
利用丰宁县1956～2008年的年降水资料,采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,建立了GM(1,1)模型,对未来2次干旱年进行预测,并利用残差检验对模型进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对丰宁县未来的干旱年进行预测,为科学决策提供依据。
Based on the annual precipitation data of Fengning from 1951 to 2008, the GM（1,1） model was built on the gray system theory which predicted the 2 occurrences of drought in the future and the precision is proved by residual test.The result shows that the precision was high that it was capable to predict the years of drought in Fengning and to provide basis for scientific decision.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第18期9687-9688,共2页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
降水量
灰色系统
干旱预测
Precipitation
Gray system
Drought prediction
