长三角地区汽车能源消耗与CO_2排放研究

Oil consumption and CO_2 emissions from automobile sector in Yangzi River Delta Region of China

建立区域汽车能源消耗和CO2排放模型,预测常规情景下长三角地区2010~2030年的燃油消耗量和CO2排放;设计不同电动力车情景以及生物燃料情景,计算节能减排效果。2007年长三角地区汽车保有量718万辆,汽油/柴油消耗总量为1660万t,CO2排放5250万t。预测2030年长三角地区汽车总保有量将达到5950~7530万辆,是2007年的8.3~10.5倍。常规情景下,峰值油耗出现在2021~2022年,是2007年的3.5~4.1倍;2030年燃油消耗量约为5000~6000万t。与之相应,CO2峰值排放量将达到1.8~2.1亿t,2030年则为1.6~1.9亿t。电动力车和生物燃料的推广能够有效降低未来汽车油耗和CO2排放。2030年各电动力车情景可削减油耗16.3%~30.1%;而生物燃料则可削减油耗5.4%~12.7%。各情景CO2的削减比例与节油比例基本相同。

A model has been developed to simulate energy consumption and CO2 emissions from automobile sector for Yangzi River Delta Region.Two business-as-usual（BAU） scenarios and several electric-powered automobiles and bio-fuels scenarios were set up.By 2007,automobile in Yangzi River Delta Region consumed 16.6 million tons of oil and emitted 52.5 million tons of CO2.In 2030 the total automobile population would reach 59.5-75.3 million,as high as 8.3-10.5 times of the number in 2007.With BAU scenarios,the peak oil consumption will occur in 2021-2022,which is about 3.5-4.1 times of that in 2007;and the oil consumption will be 50-60 million ton in 2030.Consequently,CO2 emissions at the peak will be 180-210 million tons,and reduce to 160-190 million tons in 2030.In 2030,the electric-powered automobile scenarios could reduce oil consumption by 16.3%-30.1% compared with BAU scenarios;while such benefits are 5.4%-12.7% for bio-fuel scenarios.