概率稳定性的蒙特卡罗仿真

Monte Carlo simulation approach to probabilistic stability

传统的稳定性计算采用确定性分析方法，如Ｎ－１检验或关键线路集检验，所考虑的故障模式简单，在规划和运行研究中常常需要进行更深一步的讨论。为此提出了考虑复杂故障模式的概率稳定性计算方法，采用非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真来实现，在算法中计入了稳定控制措施（如快关、切机、低频减载）的影响并定义了新的概率稳定性指标。文中并以可靠性测试系统（ＲＢＴＳ）为例进行了分析计算，算例表明，该模型和算法是可行的，所提出的风险指标从不同角度描述了系统概率稳定的特性，结果是合理的并具参考价值。文中最后提出了需进一步研究的方向。

Determinestic transient stability analysis such as N 1 test is used traditionally in most electric power ulilities which only deals with simplified contingency mode. However, more intensive studies considering complex contingency modes of electrical equipment will be more and more required in design and dispartching stages in order to find potential defaults. The probabilistic stability analysis is a powerful tool to solve this problem. This paper proposes a probabilistic stability algorithms based on non sequential Monte Carlo simulation. It discusses the faults sampling of transmission lines, protection relays, breakers and reclosures and considers the effect of emergency control strategies on the probabilistic stability indices. It also defines new indices to describe the transient performance of power systems and shows the value of presented method by numerical results.