1995-2007年我国省区碳排放及碳强度的分析--碳排放与社会发展Ⅲ

Provincial Carbon Emissions and Carbon Intensity in China from 1995 to 2007(Carbon Emissions and Social Development,Ⅲ)

利用我国分省区的化石能源消费数据和美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分析中心公布的我国碳排放数据,对1995—2007年我国各省区的碳排放量、人均碳排放和碳排放强度进行了分析。结果表明,我国区域碳排放和人均排放排序为:东部>中部>西部,但中西部地区碳强度远远高于东部地区,这种特征与中西部地区高耗能行业占工业比重较高有密切关系。1995—2007年我国省际碳强度差异变化不大;从东、中、西部地区区域内部和区域之间差异的角度对省际差异进行的分解表明,我国省际碳强度差异主要是由区域内部省际差异导致的,而区域之间差异贡献较小。逐步线性回归分析表明能源资源禀赋、产业结构和能源消费结构是省区碳强度的决定因素,说明我国未来碳强度控制应从调整产业结构、改革能源政策、发展可再生能源等方面着手,以确保我国控制目标的顺利实现。

The authors analyzed carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity at provincial and regional levels in China between 1995 and 2007,using data of China＇s provincial energy consumption and national fossil fuel carbon emissions.Carbon emissions and per capita emissions were significantly higher in east region than in middle and west regions,whereas carbon intensity was much higher in the latter two regions.Analysis of the Theil index shows that during 1995 and 2007 there was no significant change in the inter-provincial difference in carbon intensity.The decomposition analysis of inter-provincial carbon intensity difference shows that the difference was primarily caused by the intra-regional rather than inter-regional difference,highlighting that even within same region,provincial carbon efficiencies in making economic outputs were highly various.An analysis of stepwise linear regression suggests that fossil energy endowment,industry structure and energy consumption structure play a dominant role in determining provincial carbon intensity.These findings have important policy implications.