中国对外贸易、FDI对就业影响的实证研究--基于加入世贸组织前后东、中、西部数据的比较

Impact of Trade,FDI on Employment in China:Based on Panel Data of Eastern,Middle,and Western Districts after or before Access to WTO

加入世界贸易组织影响着中国的对外贸易、FDI以及经济结构,而这些又对中国的就业产生着深刻影响。文章建立了关于就业的线性计量模型,利用中国29个省市1985-2008年的面板数据,按东中西部划分区域、以中国入世为时间分界,进行分阶段分区域实证研究。主要检验了入世前后全国、东中西部进出口、FDI等对于就业的影响。结果表明:总体上,FDI、出口促进了就业的增加,但拉动作用在减小;东部在入世后FDI、出口对就业的拉动作用不再显著,而中部与西部则在入世后开始显著促进就业;进口总体上抑制了就业,不过也存在一定地区差异。核心政策启示包括:鼓励东部将有关企业向中西部转移,而中西部也应抓住机遇积极制定吸引企业西迁的政策等。

China＇ s access to the WTO affected the trade, FDI and economic structure, and then influenced employment. This paper analyses the impact of foreign trade, FDI on employment in China by way of establishing an economic model and using the panel data of 29 provinces between 1985-2008, which are based on panel data of eastern, middle, and western districts after or before access to the WTO. The major result is that FDI and export accelerate employment＇ s growth, but the effect is decreasing, especially, the effect in the middle and the western is conspicuous after access to the WTO, but the effect in eastern is contrary; totally, import goes against employment, but also exist regional differences. The core proposals include that encouraging the middle and western districts to introduce selected FDI, stimulating the eastern district to carry out the policy of ＂pushing labor intensive factories out and introducing capital or technical intensive factories in＂ , and the middle and western districts should make policies to attract the outed factories moving to middle and western districts.