摘要
房地产业存在周期波动,这种波动对国民经济和社会发展产生重要影响。研究发现,1987～2009年我国房地产业经历了三个长度为9～10年的朱格拉周期,每个周期中还存在着若干个长度为2～3年的基钦周期。我国房地产业第三个周期的调整阶段即将结束,第四个发展周期的复苏阶段从2010年初开始。
There is a cycle fluctuation in real estate industry which has effect on national economy and social development.Studies show that from 1987-2009 the cycle of real estate industry in China underwent three Juglar Cycles,which were nine to ten years in length including several Kitchin Cycles with the length of two to three years.The adjustment stage of the third cycle of China＇s real estate industry was about to end,while the recovery stage of the fourth development cycle would begin in early 2010.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期38-44,共7页
Reform
关键词
房地产周期
主成分分析
谱分析
real estate cycle
Principal Component Analysis
Spectral Analysis
