贸易如何增长?——基于广度、数量与价格的三元分解

How does trade grow?——Based on the decomposition of extensive margin,price and quantity

本文构建了分析贸易增长的三元分解框架,将出口增长分解为广度增长、数量增长与价格增长;利用这一框架,结合1995年和2004年世界双边HS92六分位贸易数据,回答了贸易如何增长的问题。结论发现,数量增长是贸易增长的主要力量,贡献度高达83%;广度增长与价格增长的贡献极其有限;这一结论对于不同国家、不同产品均成立。

We firstly propose a trade growth＇s decomposition method,by which we decompose trade growth into three sources：extensive margin growth,price growth and quantity growth.With HS92 six digits level data and this method,we answer the question of how trade grows.We arrive at the following conclusion：quantity growth is the main source of trade growth,nearly 83%;extensive margin and price has very little effect;this conclusion is robust to different countries and different products.