金融体系深化、外生冲击与经济平稳增长——基于1991-2008年我国省市面板数据的检验

Finance System Deepening、Exogenous Shocks and Economic Growth Steadily:Based on Province Level Panel Model during 1991-2008

本文通过一个拓展的实证模型研究金融发展与金融机构在促进经济增长的过程中对外界冲击的反应发现:在加入外生冲击检验项后,银行信贷表现出显著的抑制经济外生冲击、避免经济大幅波动与平滑经济增长的作用。股票筹资在显著促进经济增长的同时,在外生冲击下具有放大经济波动幅度的"助涨助跌"效果,放大效应与市场规模密切相关,这也是股票市场规模促进经济增长存在"倒U效应"的间接证据。加入银行信贷与股票市场双指标变量的检验显示,股票市场与银行信贷表现出明显的"互补溢出"效应:首先,股票市场规模变大使得银行信贷对经济的抑制作用变得不明显,银行信贷可以促进股票市场影响经济增长的效果;其次,两者的共同作用可以平滑经济增长的外生冲击,这一结论意味着建设多层次资本市场的重要性,也肯定了我国金融结构体系深化过程的合理性。

By expanding a demonstration model, the paper analyses the reaction of external impact on the process of financial development and structure deepening. It shows that after adding exogenous shocks in the test items, the bank credit showed significant inhibition of exogenous economic shocks, avoiding sharp fluctuations in the economy and the smooth function of healthy growth. The raised capital from stock market enlarges the economic fluctuation on the action of external impact, with stimulating economic growth notably. This also proves that the ＂inverted U effect＂ exists on the process of stock market stimulating economic growth. Examination with both indexes of bank credit and stock market shows that Stock market and bank credit show obvious ＂Spillover Effect＂ . Firstly, the increasing size of stock market can decrescence the effect of Bank credit restraining economic growth, and bank credit can strength the stimulating economic growth effect from stock market. Secondly, the combined action of two indexes above can smooth the external impact on economics. It means the importance of constructing the multi-level capital market, which also proved the reasonableness of the deepening course of our country financial system.