争论中的人民币汇率:现实与选择

Controversy in the RMB Exchange Rate:Reality and Choice

汇率的决定是个理论问题,应该理性地评估有关人民币汇率的各种观点;汇率调整又是货币政策的工具,其决定和操作也应是理性和主动的。全球经济失衡不仅表现为部分国家储蓄、消费、贸易、国际收支失衡,更表现为世界财富分配的失衡、资源拥有和消耗的失衡、国际货币体系失衡等一系列深层次、结构性的问题。人民币汇率仅仅是导致贸易顺差的众多要素中的一环。货币对内价值和对外价值的这个特性,决定了选择汇率稳定作为宏观经济管理的支点,经济的调整成本最小。从长期而言,随着中国劳动力成本的结构趋于成熟,资源价格趋于合理,人民币将逐渐升值,但这是一个缓慢渐进的过程。

Decision of the exchange rate is a theoretical issue, and it should be a rational evaluation of variety of perspectives of the RMB exchange rate. Exchange rate adjustment is also a tool of monetary policy, its decisions and operations should also be a rational and active. Global economic imbalances is not only as a part of national savings, consumption, trade, balance of payments imbalances, but also the imbalances of the distribution of world wealth, resource availability and consumption, the international monetary system and the imbalances in a series of deep-seated structural problems. The RMB exchange rate is only one factors of trade surplus. The characleristic of currency--internal and external value, determine the choice of exchange rate stability as the fulcrnm of macroeconomic management and minimize the cost of economic adjustment. In the long run, as China＇s labor cost structure becoming maturity, the prices of resources will b more reasonable, and RMB will gradually appreciate. Meanwhile, it will be a slow and gradual process.