耕地保护的制度供给实施绩效差异研究

The Differences of Institutional Performance of Farmland Protection in China

基于1980—2007年间中国历年出台的耕地保护相关法律法规和规章制度等,考察了中国耕地保护制度对城镇化建设占用耕地的影响,并着重检验了不同阶段耕地保护制度供给强度的实施绩效差异。结果发现,耕地保护制度对经济建设占用耕地速度具有显著的遏制作用。尽管在1997年以后十年中国又相继出台了更多耕地保护法规和政策,但其实施绩效并不高于1997年的水平。这意味着,最严格耕地保护制度可能仅体现于耕地保护法规政策数量的增加,其执行效果并没有完全发挥出来。预测结果表明,在最严格的耕地保护管制力度水平假设下,新一轮土地规划所确定的建设用地指标基本上能够满足经济发展的需求,但仍面临着一系列严峻挑战。

China's most stringent farmland protection institution (CFPI)provides important policy support for adhering to '1.8 billion mu red line of farmland protection'. So,how stringent the farmland protection institution is in the end? What characteristics it shows? This paper focuses on these issues to study which would help promote the understanding on the supply of farmland protection institution,and provide policy direction for land management system reform. Based on China's farmland protection laws,rules and regulations launched from 1980 to 2007,this paper provides an initial assessment of the effects of CFPI on farmland conversion to urbanization,and tests the performance gap between different intensity grades of CFPI at different stages. The results show that CFPI has a significant effect on lowering farmland conversion rate,and China had the most stringent farmland protection institution in 1997 though China has introduced a great variety of farmland protection laws and policies during the following decade,which means that CFPI may only be reflected in the increase in the number of farmland protection policies and regulations,but the effects of policy implementation have not been fully realized. The prediction results indicate that,under the assumption of the most stringent farmland protection efforts,the farmland conversion indicators for the construction of China's new round of land use planning can basically meet the needs of economic development,but still face severe challenges.