基于双因素的城市建设用地预测——以兰州市为例

A CASE STUDY ON LANZHOU CITY:PREDICTION OF URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND BASED ON DUAL FACTORS MODEL

随着我国城市化进程的加快,我国城市建设用地规模在不断扩大。城市建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划的重要内容之一,具有十分重要的意义。本文以2000—2007年兰州市城市建设统计数据为基础,采用人口增长拉动与经济增长(GDP)拉动的双因素模型,对兰州市2010、2015、2020年3个时点的城市建设用地进行了预测。从预测结果中可以看出,基于人口增长的建设用地预测结果比较保守,而基于经济增长的预测结果偏大。文中选取适当的调整因子对两种预测结果进行调整,最后得出兰州市2010年建设用地规模为18 339.9 hm2,2015年的建设用地规模为23 269.8 hm2,2020年的建设用地规模为27 176.0 hm2。

With the acceleration of urbanization process in China,the scale of urban construction land has been continuing to increase.The prediction of urban construction land demand is an important part of overall planning in land use,and it has great significance.Based on the statistics of urban construction land in Lanzhou city from the year of 2000 to 2007,dual factors model of population growth and economy growth（gross domestic product） is used to predict the urban construction land scale for year 2010,2015 and 2020.The result based on population model is conservative and the result based on economic model is exaggerated,which has been adjusted by using correction factors.The ultimate results of urban land scale of Lanzhou city are 18 339.9 hm2 in 2010,23 269.8 hm2 in 2015 and 27 176.0 hm2 in 2020.