天气业务的现代化发展

Modernization Process of Weather Forecast

在回顾天气业务60年来的发展历程,总结天气业务发展经验的基础上,指出天气业务的现代化发展是以天气预报的精细化为基本特征,以提高精细化预报基础上的预报准确率为根本要求。天气业务60年的实践表明,天气业务的现代化发展得益于:(1)大气科学理论的发展;(2)现代气象科技的进步;(3)气象业务体系的完善;(4)气象服务需求的牵引。面向现代天气业务的发展,提出了需要把握的4个要点问题:(1)数值预报技术的核心作用;(2)专业化的预报业务技术体系;(3)集约化的预报业务流程;(4)专家型的预报员队伍等。这些应成为发展现代天气业务的重点任务。

Reviewing the past 60-year developmental course of weather forecast and summarizing its successful experiences we can point out that the modernization development of weather services is basically characterized by the more fineness of weather forecast,and meantime it has taken the forecast accuracy as fundamental requirement on the basis of the strengthening forecast fineness at time and space scales.The 60-year practical experiences of weather forecast have indicated that the modernization process of weather services receives benefits from the following aspects：（1） the development of theories in atmospheric sciences; （2） the progress in modern meteorological science and technology;（3） the improvement of meteorological operation system;and（4） the increasing needs of weather services.Facing the further development of modern weather forecast,we put forward the four key problems needed for consideration：（1） the key role played by numerical weather prediction technique;（2） the professional system of forecast technique;（3） the integrated forecast operational procedures;and（4） the forecaster team with expert characteristics.All the aspects mentioned above should be the main tasks for developing the modern weather forecast.