强对流天气短时临近预报业务技术进展与挑战

Review on Severe Convective Weather Short-Term Forecasting and Nowcasting

强对流天气短时临近预报业务是国家防灾减灾、重大社会活动和精细化天气预报的迫切需要。虽然我国强对流天气短时临近预报业务已经取得了巨大进展,但与国外先进水平相比还有不少差距。本文总结了近年国内外强对流天气短时临近预报业务现状、技术进展、目前国内的技术支撑状况和所面临的挑战,并提出了相应的应对措施。目前强对流天气短时临近预报技术仍然主要是外推预报技术、数值预报技术和概念模型预报技术等,但快速更新循环的高时空分辨率数值模式预报和新一代静止气象卫星资料将在强对流天气短时临近预报中发挥重要作用。强对流天气监测、分析和机理研究是强对流天气短时临近预报的重要基础;先进的外推预报方法同快速更新循环的高时空分辨率数值模式预报以及二者的融合是未来强对流天气短时临近预报的重要发展方向。

The short-term forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather is to meet the demands of national preventing and mitigating disasters,major social activities,and fine weather service.Although great progresses in the short-term forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather were made in China in recent years,there are still many gaps between China and developed countries.The current development of technique and operation status on the short-term forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather are reviewed.The challenges in China are summarized and the corresponding measures are proposed.Currently,the main techniques on the short-term forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather can be classified as three types：the extrapolation forecast,numerical model forecast,and the knowledge-based forecast technique.However,the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast and the data of the next generation of geostationary meteorological satellites will play important roles in the short-term forecasting and nowcasting of severe convective weather.The surveillances,analyses,and mechanism research of the convective weather are the foundation of the short-term forecasting and nowcasting.The advanced extrapolation forecast, the rapid updated cycle of numerical model forecast,and their blending forecast are the important development directions of the short-term forecasting and nowcasting in future.