我国台风预报业务的现状及思考

The Advances and Discussions on China Operational Typhoon Forecasting

随着数值预报模式和技术以及综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,自20世纪90年代以来我国台风业务预报取得了长足的进步,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,目前基本达到国际先进水平。通过对我国及国际台风/飓风业务预报现状的回顾,分析了目前我国台风业务预报中存在的主要问题、业务预报难点和亟待解决的科学问题,同时展望了我国台风业务预报在全球气候变化条件下,以及日益增长的国家防灾减灾需求形势下所面临的挑战,并对我国台风业务预报的未来发展做出了一些粗浅的思考,提出了改进我国台风业务预报的相关建议措施。

With continuous progresses and improvements in NWP and integrated observation systems,China operational tropical cyclone forecasting has made considerable progresses since the nineties of last century. Operational tropical cyclone track forecasting especially has made a significant level of progress and reached the international advanced level.By reviewing and analyzing the current situation of national and international operational tropical cyclone forecasting,the main problems,operational forecasting difficulties and urgent scientific issues to be solved in current China operational typhoon forecasting are analyzed. Then an overview on the challenge of China operational typhoon forecasting under the global climate change and the growing demand in national disaster prevention and preparedness is made,some considerations about the development of China operational typhoon forecasting in the future are given,and finally some measures for improving China operational typhoon forecasting are proposed.