基于MJO的延伸预报

Extended Range Forecast Basing on MJO

近10年来,2～4周的延伸预报成为天气和气候业务预报发展的一个方向。目前比较有效的方法是根据季节内振荡的传播,尤其是MJO振荡(30～60天周期)的传播来制作延伸期预报。国际上一些天气-气候预报中通过数年的业务试验已取得了初步结果。作者首先介绍了MJO振荡及季风的季节内振荡(MISO)特征,并从季节内振荡与中纬度相互作用的角度讨论了制作延伸预报的理论依据;进一步对延伸预报的可预报性、预报方法及国内外业务应用进展进行了综述,并以江淮梅雨为例探讨了我国延伸预报的可预报性及信号;最后阐述了延伸预报的发展趋势。

In the last decade,the 2—4 week extended range forecast（ERF） has become an important research area for operational developments of both weather forecast and climate prediction.Propagation of intraseasonal oscillation especially MJO（30—60 d oscillation） is a fairly effective method to be used for ERF at present.Internationally,preliminary achievements have been made in years of operational experimentation on weather-climate forecasting.In this review,the intraseasonal oscillation（ISO） as theory basis for ERF is firstly briefly introduced,including basic characteristics of ISO and interactions between ISO and weather-climate in middle latitudes.Then,developments of predictability,methods and operational application of ERF are reviewed.And signals and relative predictability of ISO for ERF of China are further explored by taking Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe Basin as an example.Finally,the developing trend of ERF is described by pointing out some problems in dynamical models.