湖北省宜都市耕地利用变化与驱动机制

An Analysis of Farmland Use Change and Driving Forces in Yidu City,Hubei Province

利用宜都市1999—2006年序列耕地统计数据及相应的社会、经济资料,宏观分析了该区耕地利用变化的趋势和现状。在驱动机制的探讨中,尝试性地建立了驱动因子指标体系,并运用SPSS统计分析软件对47个驱动因子进行了相关性分析,分析得出人均国内生产总值、单位耕地面积机械总动力、职工平均工资等17个因子与耕地数量的变化相关性比较强。通过主成分分析法对上述17个驱动因子作进一步的定量分析,以此揭示出影响耕地利用变化的主要驱动因子是经济发展、科技进步、产业结构、消费水平4个方面。

Using the serial statistical data of Yidu City and the corresponding social resources and economic resources from 1999 to 2006, this paper generally analyzes the change trend and the current status of farmland of the city. In discussing the driving mechanism, the paper attempts to establish a system of indicators and analyze the 47 driving factors by using SPSS statistical analysis software. The results indicate that such factors as the per capita GDP, unit of arable land, the total area of mechanical power, the workers＇average wage are relatively closely related to the change of farmland quantity. Through the principal component analysis of the 17 driving forces for further quantitative analysis, the paper reveals that the main driving factors are economic development, scientific and technological progress, industrial structure, and consumption level.