Network Security Situation Prediction Based on Improved Adaptive Grey Verhulst Model

<Abstract>Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security.Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction.However,the now-existing research focuses on the current situation evaluation,and seldom discusses the future prediction.Based on the historical research,an improved grey Verhulst model is put forward to predict the future situation.Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model,the adaptive grey parameters and equaldimensions grey filling methods are proposed to improve the precision.The simulation results prove that the scheme is efficient and applicable.

Network security situation is a hot research topic in the field of network security. Whole situation awareness includes the current situation evaluation and the future situation prediction. However, the now-existing research focuses on the current situation evaluation, and seldom discusses the future prediction. Based on the historical research, an improved grey Verhulst model is put forward to predict the future situation. Aiming at the shortages in the prediction based on traditional Verhulst model, the adaptive grey parameters and equal- dimensions grey filling methods are proposed to improve the precision. The simulation results prove that the scheme is efficient and applicable.