西安城市化进程对城市用水的影响

The Influence of Urbanization on Urban Water Consumption in Xi'an City

随着城市化进程的快速发展,西安非农业人口不断增加,经济增长和产业结构升级,使得城市用水量和用水部门结构也在随之发生着相应的变化,水资源供需矛盾日趋突出,严重制约着城市的可持续发展。根据西安市1978年-2007年城市用水和城市化有关数据资料,应用数理统计分析方法分析了西安城市化程度,在此基础上构建了城市化程度对城市用水量影响的关系模型,并对城市化主要指标和城市用水部门结构进行曲线拟合,探究西安城市化主要指标对城市用水部门结构的影响,为促进西安城市可持续发展提供一定的科学参考。研究表明:随着城市化进程的快速发展,西安城市用水量呈波动增加趋势,但增长速度逐渐降低。城市用水部门结构也发生着相应的变化,城市生活用水量随人口城市化率的变化呈现单调上升的特征;生产用水量随GDP的变化呈倒"U"型线走势,符合库兹涅茨曲线规律。

With the rapid development of urbanization, the urban water consumption and urban water structure of Xi＇an City in Shaanxi Province have also been changed accordingly. The contradiction in urban water consumption between supply and demand became increasingly prominent, which would significantly hinder the sustainable development of the city. In this context, this paper makes an attempt to examine the urbanization level of Xi＇an that influenced changes in urban water consumption and trends in urban water use of major sectors. The degree of urbanization was analyzed by using statistical methods and data on urban water consumption and urbanization collected from 1978 to 2007 in Xi＇an. On the basis of this, a relational model about the degree of the influences of urbanization was built. The relationship between the major indicators of urbanization and the structure of urban water consumption was fitted, with the aim to explore their mathematical functions. Results showed that on the whole, the urban water consumption of Xi＇an has gone through a variety of processes from slow increase to rapid increase to gradual convergence towards a stable state except for some individual years. After the year 1998, the urban domestic water consumption became larger than the urban productive water consumption, indicating that Xi＇an became a city characterized mainly by domestic water consumption. In terms of the content of urbanization derived through the componential analysis, major indicators of the urbanization of Xi＇an were identified. Then the functional relationships were established, which appeared to be of the ability to reflect the urbanization level. It was stated that the urbanization level increased year by year, but the growth rate has gradually reduced. The relationship between urban water consumption and the logarithm of the urbanization degree in Xi＇an showed a linear growth, with a progressively decreasing growth rate. The relationships between the water uses of urban major sectors and major urbanization indicators such as non-agricultural population and economic development were fitted. Results showed that the urban domestic water consumption increased monotonically with the population urbanization rate, and the fitted curves between them were found to essentially follow the exponential function. That means that people would increase urban water demand with an increasing population and urbanization rate, leading urban domestic water consumption to increase. The relationship between urban production water consumption and GDP showed a ＂U＂-shape curve, reflecting the Environment Kuznets Curve. This could be explained by great dependence between urban production water consumption, and economic development and industrial restructuring.