经济增长与违法用地的关系分析

A Discussion on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Land Illegal Use

现阶段,协调好经济增长和违法用地的矛盾是实现我国可持续发展战略的重要基础。通过运用Granger因果检验方法,利用1999年-2007年间的省际面板数据验证了经济增长与违法用地之间的因果关系。研究结果表明,在滞后1期,经济发展与违法用地之间存在双向因果关系;在滞后2期,经济发展与违法用地之间不存在因果关系。具体而言:在经济增长的初级和中级阶段,经济增长是违法用地的诱因;在经济增长的高级阶段,经济增长与违法用地之间不存在因果关系,这是由于一方面经济增长不再依靠土地要素投入的增加,另一方面违法用地的大面积蔓延反倒会对经济发展质量产生不利影响。这一研究的政策启示是,目前以及今后一段时间内,土地违法现象仍然会存在。既要充分利用违法用地对经济增长的推动效应,而且需要采用经济、行政、技术等各种手段,将违法用地遏制在一个合理的范围内,以便更好地为我国的经济增长服务。

At present, it is of utmost importance for China＇s sustainable development to coordinate the conflict between economic growth and land illegal use. In order to have a better understanding of land illegal use in economic development and provide a basis for managing land, the causes and mechanisms of land illegal use should be thoroughly investigated. This paper aims to test the causality between economic growth and land illegal use. Here, per capita GDP and the area of land illegal use were adopted to represent economic growth and land illegal use, respectively. First of all, two hypotheses of this study were presented. Second, provincial panel data of per capita GDP and area of land illegal use from 1999 to 2007 were collected. Third, the co-integration relationship between the per capita GDP and the area of land illegal use was examined. It was found that there is a long-term, balanced and stable relationship between economic growth and land illegal use. Forth, the causality between economic growth and land illegal use was analyzed using the Granger causality test. Results have proven the hypotheses of this study. It was also found that in the processes of China＇s industrialization and urbanization, there is a simple linear relationship between economic growth and land illegal use, and a two-way causality between economic growth and land illegal use. At the first delaying period, a two-way causality exists between economic growth and land illegal use; at the second delaying period, there is no causality exists between economic growth and land illegal use. It was also showed that economic growth is the incentive of land illegal use at the primary and secondary stages of economic growth. At the advanced stage, there is no causal relationship between economic growth and land illegal use. This is because, on the one hand, economic growth is no longer reliant on increases in land inputs; on the other hand, large-scale land illegal use shows a adverse effect on the quality of China＇s economic development. Some policy implications are given as follows. At present and in the future, phenomena of land illegal use exist and will continue to exist because of the great driving forces of economic growth. It is unrealistic and unnecessary to sacrifice economic growth to protect land. But disorder and excessive land illegal use would result in shortages of land resources, thus affecting food production, national security, and ultimately affect sustainable development. The effects of land illegal use on economic growth should be made full use of, and economic means, administrative means, and technical means can be taken to jointly control land illegal use within a reasonable range, making land illegal use better serve economic development.