中国碳排放:国际比较与减排战略

China's Carbon Emissions:International Comparison and Mitigation Strategies

利用MARKAL-MACRO模型,对中国(2010年-2050年)未来能源消费产生的二氧化碳进行预测,并依据人口增长与城市化水平、宏观经济、能源效率、能源结构模拟了碳排放的基准方案。在基准方案下,中国的一次能源需求将在2042年达到峰值62.81亿tce,万元GDP能耗在2050年下降到0.36tce。能源相关的二氧化碳排放在2036达到峰值107.53亿t。国际间二氧化碳排放量的比较表明,中国作为发展中国家,在全球碳减排中承担较少责任。由于大量消耗化石燃料造成严重的国内环境污染,基于减缓气候变化和环境污染损失的考虑,中国需要限制化石能源的使用,降低二氧化碳排放。在优化方案下,中国的一次能源需求会在2031年达到峰值51.76亿tce,万元GDP能耗在2050年下降到0.26tce;二氧化碳排放峰值出现在2029年,为95.27亿t。要实现优化方案,中国经济需要向低碳经济转型,提高能源效率,扩大清洁能源的比重。

China＇s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions between 2010 and 2050 were predicted in this study with the MARKAL-MACRO model. Carbon emissions in the reference scenario were simulated on the basis of population growth, urbanization, macroeconomy, industrial structure, energy efficiency and energy structure. . The peak value and the peak time was estimated in the different scenarios. Carbon emissions is influenced by the urbanization and industrialization in China. Total population of China will reach 1.46 billions in 2035, and will decrease gradually after 2036. Gross domestic product will be 163.27 trillions yuan （2005 value） in 2050, and the urbanization rate will be 67.18 in 2050. The growth of urban population would result in more needs for construction, highway, railway, and other infrastructural facilities. Also, the demands for cars and household electric appliance will grow. As such, consumption of energy will increase rapidly, which would lead to growth of carbon dioxide emissions. It was shown in the reference scenario that primary energy demand will achieve peak value 6.28×109tce in 2042, the energy consumption per 10 000 yuan will go down to 0.36tce. Energy-realated carbon emissions will achieve peak value 10.70×109t in 2036. It was concluded that more carbon dioxide will be emitted in the future. However, total emissions of China from 1900-1990 was much less than the United States, and per capita emissions was also far less than that of developed countries. There was no country with a high economy level whose per capita carbon dioxide emissions was less than 6 tons. In order to maintain increases in gross domestic product, carbon emissions of China will increase inevitably. An international comparison performed showed that as a developing country, China seems to burden less responsibility in global emission abatement. Huge consumption of fossil fuel has resulted in serious environment pollution. Coal accounts for more than 60% in the primary energy structure, which produce sulfur dioxide, dust and other pollutant. On the other hand, nuclear power accounts for only 2% in the primary energy structure, much less than the world average level of 17%. Hydraulic power has been developing rapidly in recent years, but economical and technical hydraulic power will reach its limit in 2040. Wind power, photovoltaic and biologic energy still need to be further developed. Nuclear power, hydraulic power wind power, photovoltaic and biologic energy are all clean energy. Carbon emissions will decrease if the fossil energy is taken place by the clean energy. It was suggested that consumption of fossil fuel be limited and carbon emissions be reduced in China, contributing to climate change mitigation and environment protection. An optimized scheme was put forward on the basis of the reference scenario. In the optimized scheme, primary energy demand will achieve peak value 5.18×109tce in 2031, account for 81.7% of the peak in the reference scenario; energy consumption per 10 000 yuan will go down to 0.26tce. Energy-realated carbon emissions will achieve peak value 9.53×109t in 2029. To realize the optimized scheme, China must reform its inefficient economy to low-carbon economy, improve energy efficiency and the share of clean energy in primary energy consumption.