资源型城市可持续发展水平评价——以黑龙江省大庆市为例

An Evaluation of Resource-Based City's Sustainable Development Level:A Case Study on Daqing City in Heilongjiang Province

在资源型城市发展水平评价中,传统GDP方法没有考虑环境污染、资源损耗等因素,没有考虑可持续发展。本文尝试在可操作性和全面性前提下对绿色GDP和真实储蓄率评价方法进行改进,重点探讨固定资本折旧、资源变化和污染损失的计算,同时引入灰色关联分析方法,建立系统分析与模糊分析相结合的资源型城市可持续发展水平评价体系。用此评价体系本文对大庆市2003年-2007年城市可持续发展水平进行评价,结果发现:①从2003年到2007年,大庆市GDP年均增长12.8%,绿色GDP年均增长13.3%,真实储蓄年均增长15.7%,从数字上来看,绿色GDP比GDP要少近1/6,真实储蓄比绿色GDP略少;②2003年-2007年大庆市可持续发展能力不断提高,2007年灰色关联综合指数比2003年增长1.22倍,其中经济指标贡献最大,资源与环境指标其次,社会指标贡献最小。最后本文根据实证结果给出大庆市应积极鼓励非油产业发展、大力发展第三产业等可持续发展建议。

Among approaches of evaluating development levels for a resource-oriented city, traditional methods with GDP do not take into account environmental pollution, resources loss and sustainable development. To that end, this paper makes attempt to improve the evaluation in terms of the Green GDP and the genuine savings rate based on principles of maneuverability and comprehensiveness. The Green GDP primarily focuses on calculation concerning fixed capital depreciation, resource transformation and pollution loss, in which the fixed capital cardinal number is measured by capital stock rather than the total amount of fixed capital formation used previously, the natural resources loss is calculated by means of consumer cost, and the pollution loss is mainly concentrated on air, solids and water. In addition, for improvement of genuine savings rate analyses, the authors introduced the inflow of net elements, and the variable amount value of non-renewable resources and renewable resources. Meanwhile, the grey relational analysis method was employed, in which the index weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, and the index selected was processed in a multilevel grey relational analytical way. The abovementioned approaches involving the Green GDP, genuine savings rate and grey relational analysis constitute an effective evaluation system of sustainable development level suited for resource-oriented cities, which is characterized by integration of the system analysis with the fuzzy analysis. Then the newly-established system was applied to evaluate the sustainable development level in Daqing City, Heilongjiang Province, from 2003 to 2007. Results indicated that 1） the mean annual growth rate of its GDP was 12.8%, and that of the Green GDP was 13.3%. In general, the Green GDP was found to be approximately less than one sixth of the GDP. The mean annual growth rate of the genuine savings was estimated to be 15.7%, somewhat lower than the Green GDP; 2） it was showed that the sustainable development capacity of Daqing City has been gradually improved by the grey relational indices related to the overall index, economic index, resource and environmental index, and social index with an increase of 122%, 333%, 101%, and 51%, respectively, among which the economic index ranked first, followed by the resource and environmental index and the social index in terms of the contribution to the growth of the comprehensive grey relational index; and 3） suggestions on how to realize sustainable development of Daqing City were provided, involving encouraging the growth of the non-oil industry, enhancing the tertiary industry, promoting energy-consuming efficiency, raising the economic opening-up level, and improving the household living quality and environment as well.