1999～2009年世界煤炭消费量变化分析及启示

Global Coal Consumption Changes during 1999-2009 and Enlightenment

分析近10年煤炭消费量的变化,对认识在经济困难背景下不同国家能源构成的走向会有重要启发。国际油价从20世纪末开始攀升,这种影响在1999～2005年间并未使GDP增速明显下降,但还是迫使某些竞争力较弱和/或高耗能企业采用煤炭替代成本较高的石油,经济发展程度较低的国家以煤代油的倾向更明显,煤炭消费年均增长率高达7.60%,使得世界煤炭消费年均增长率比一次能源高出1.7个百分点,而亚太地区竟高出2.31个百分点。油价的持续大幅攀升在2005～2007年间仍未能使GDP增长率下降,但却迫使全球都增加了对煤炭的需求,导致煤炭消费量年均增长率略有上升,与一次能源年均增长率之差增至2.1个百分点。金融危机爆发后,全球GDP增长明显下降,2007～2009年全球一次能源年均增长率为0.18%,煤炭消费年均增长率为1.47%。但新兴市场经济体GDP增速普遍高于OECD国家,同时煤炭消费年均增长率达到6.82%。其中中国和印度在经济较快发展的同时,2007～2009年煤炭消费年均增长率也分别达到8.14%和8.11%。韩国由于高耗能基础工业仍占据重要地位,也加大了煤炭的消费量。中、印、韩等国更多地使用煤炭是在经济困难时保障经济较快发展而被迫采取的重要措施,是正确的能源对策。

Analyzing the changes in the world＇s coal consumption over the past 10 years will give inspiration to understanding the trends in the energy mixes of different countries at a time of recession.International oil prices started rising at the end of the 20th century and this did not result in a considerable decline in GDP growth during 1999 to 2005.However,it did force some less competitive and/or energy-intensive enterprises to switch away from relatively costly oil to coal and this is especially the case for underdeveloped countries.As a result,the world＇s coal consumption grew by as high as 7.6% per year,1.7 percentage points higher than the annual rate of growth of the world＇s primary energy consumption.Particularly,in the Asia Pacific Region,the growth of coal consumption was 2.31% faster than that of primary energy consumption.The sustained surge in oil prices still did not force down GDP growth between 2005 and 2007 but led to an in-crease in demand for coal worldwide.Consequently,the world＇ s coal consumption grew slightly faster during that period and the rate of growth of the world＇s coal consumption was 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the world＇s primary energy consumption in that period.Since the outbreak of the financial crisis ,GDP growth has been slowing down considerably worldwide.From 2007 to 2009,the world＇ s primary energy consumption grew at an annual rate of 0.18%,while coal consumption rose by 1.47% per year.The GDP growth in emerging economies was generally faster than that in OECD countries.The annual rate of growth in coal consumption in emerging economies reached 6.82%.While maintaining fast economic growth ,China and India witnessed 8.14% and 8.11% growth in coal consumption respectively during 2007 to 2009.South Korea also increased its consumption of coal as energy-intensive industries still dominate the country＇s economy.For China,India,South Korea and some other countries,increasing the use of coal is an important and correct policy they had to adopt to sustain rapid economic growth at a time when the global economy is getting into a recession.