灰色Verhulst模型的改进及其应用

Improved-grey Verhulst model and its application

灰色Verhulst模型的精度依赖于背景值和结构参数。本文提出了一种改进的灰色Verhulst模型。首先分析了传统的灰色Verhulst模型产生误差的原因,从背景值定义出发,推导了用原始数据生成的背景值公式;其次,基于灰色系统信息覆盖原理,提出了一种结构参数优化方法;最后,应用本文方法建立了我国天然原油生产量的灰色Verhulst模型。实例表明,模型具有很高的精度。

The accuracy of grey Verhulst model greatly depends on background value and model structure parameter. In this paper,an improved-grey Verhulst model is proposed.Firstly,the cause of grey Verhulst model＇s inaccuracy is analyzed.Secondly,the background value is rebuilt by using original data sequence.Thirdly,model structure parameter is obtained by optimization based on the principle about information overlap of grey system.Finally,the improved-grey Verhulst modeling is applied for building the model of national production of crude oil and results show its effectiveness.