考虑空间效应的中国省域旅游产业弹性估计

Estimation of Regional R & D Elasticities of China's Provinces with Spatial Effects into Consideration

基于空间计量经济模型和2001～2007年截面平均值数据,对中国省域旅游产业生产函数的弹性系数进行了实证估计研究。空间自相关Moran’sⅠ和空间关联局域指标LISA检验显示,中国省域旅游产业产出在空间上存在显著的空间自相关性,具有明显的集群趋势;纳入空间依赖性的省域旅游产业生产函数估计结果发现,资本投入对中国省域旅游产业的弹性系数为0.74,而劳动投入的弹性系数为0.40,处于规模报酬递增阶段。由此,在省域旅游弹性估算研究时不容忽视空间效应的作用,制定差异化的提高资本和劳动投入及其配置效率的旅游发展策略,对实现我国省域旅游产业可持续发展意义重大。

Based on spatial econometric method and cross-section mean data of China＇ s provinces in 2001--2007, the paper makes empirical and estimative study on the industry＇ s elastic coefficients of provincial tourism productive function. The testing of spatial autocorrelation analysis and local indicators of spatial association analysis show that there exist significant spatial dependency and local clustering trend for the provincial tourism output. As brought into spatial dependency, the estimative results of provincial productive coefficients of tourism industry show that the output elasticity of China＇ s regional tourism capital and labor is 0.74 and 0.40 respectively, which show increasing returns in terms of scale. Therefore, when we estimate and study regional tourism elasticity, the spatial effects should not be ignored. Formulating tourism develdpment tactics to improve capital and labor input together with allocation efficiency is of great sngnificance to the realization of the sustainable development of China＇ s regional tourism industry.